Oil WTI & RBOB - Week 14 Analysis
Not financial advice. Personal observations for educational purposes only.
WTI closed Friday around $95. That’s a big move from the $65-$85 range it had been grinding through for most of the past year.
The weekend brought more fuel: Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities, Iran rejecting US peace talks, and a major Russian refinery fire taking significant refining capacity offline. If any of these developments compound, $100 isn’t a ceiling - it’s a checkpoint.
RBOB gasoline is at ~$3.28/gallon, up from $2.40 earlier this month. Refined product is getting scarcer faster than crude itself, which is typical when the supply shock hits infrastructure rather than just production.
What it means for NB gas prices
NB pump prices track the NYH RBOB benchmark, converted to CAD. Current pump: ~$1.80/L. EUB resets on Thursdays, so this week’s crude spike won’t show up at the pump until next Thursday at the earliest.
| Crude (WTI) | Est. RBOB | Est. NB Pump | 50L Fill |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | ~$3.50 | ~$2.00/L | ~$100 |
| $120 | ~$4.00 | ~$2.20/L | ~$110 |
| $150 | ~$5.00+ | ~$2.80-$3.15/L | ~$143-$157 |
The $150 scenario requires sustained supply disruption - not just headlines. But the path there is clearer now than it’s been in years.
I don’t trade energy futures. I follow oil because it directly affects cost of living here in NB. Always do your own analysis.