A structured, repeatable protocol for identifying and trading reversals. Work through each step in order - if a step doesn’t confirm, stop. No confirmation, no trade.

HTF IOF → DOL → POI → TOI → SMT → CSD
1 HTF IOF Higher Time Frame Institutional Order Flow

Before anything else, determine the narrative - what is the higher time frame telling you? This is the foundation. Everything downstream depends on getting this right.

Checklist

  • MMSM or MMBM? - Is the market in a Market Maker Sell Model or Market Maker Buy Model? Identify which schematic is in play on the monthly/weekly/daily.
  • Narrative - What is the story? Where has price been, where is it likely heading, and why? What is the draw? Think in terms of liquidity pools and imbalances the market needs to address.
2 DOL Draw on Liquidity

Identify where price is being drawn to. The DOL is the magnet - the target that institutional order flow is reaching for.

Checklist

  • PXH / PXL - Previous session highs and lows (previous day, previous week, previous month). Are any of these the likely target?
  • Old PD Array - Is there an old/unfilled Fair Value Gap, Order Block, or Breaker that price is being drawn toward?
  • Key Level - Significant swing points, equal highs/lows, or institutional reference levels.
  • Opening Price - Midnight open, NY open, or session open acting as a reference level.
3 POI Point of Interest

Now identify where you expect price to react - the zone where the reversal is most likely to begin. This is your sniper entry area.

Checklist

  • PXH / PXL - Is the reversal expected at a previous session high or low?
  • Old PD Array - An unfilled FVG, Order Block, or Breaker Block sitting at or near the expected turning point.
  • Key Level - Confluence of institutional levels at the anticipated reaction zone.
  • Opening Price - Session or daily open acting as a support/resistance pivot.
4 TOI Time of Interest

When is the reversal most likely to occur? Time is more important than price. Reversals don't happen randomly - they happen at specific times in the manipulation cycle.

Checklist

  • XX:45 - XX:15. The key window. Reversals tend to form in the last 15 minutes of the previous hour through the first 15 minutes of the new hour. This is the manipulation-to-distribution transition.
  • Manipulation Cycle - Where are you in the session's manipulation cycle? London open manipulation? NY AM reversal? Lunch consolidation? Identify the phase.
5 SMT Smart Money Time (Divergence)

Look for confirmation through divergence between correlated assets. SMT divergence is the signal that smart money is positioning - it's your green light.

Checklist

  • Big Time Cycle SMT - Check for divergence on the higher time frames (daily/weekly) between correlated pairs. Example: NQ makes a lower low but ES does not.
  • Smaller Time Cycle SMT - Confirm on lower time frames (15m/5m/1m). The divergence should be visible on the execution time frame.
  • Double SMT - Both big and small time cycle SMT aligning. This is the highest-probability setup.
6 CSD Change in State of Delivery

The final confirmation - price actually shifts its delivery. This is where you see the market physically change character from one state to another.

Checklist

  • Imbalance Displacement Through - Price aggressively displaces through a PD array or key level, showing institutional commitment to the new direction.
  • Creation of Opposing Imbalances - As price reverses, it creates new FVGs in the opposite direction. These become your reference points for continuation entries.
  • Breaker / Mitigation Block Formation - The old order block that failed becomes a breaker. A mitigation block forms. These confirm the reversal is structural, not just a retracement.

Work through the steps in order. If any step fails to confirm, the sequence is broken, no trade.

Last verified: April 2026.