Things are escalating fast this weekend. Energy facilities hit in Iran, Israeli strikes ongoing, and now one of Russia’s largest refineries is burning. Crude oil closed near $95/barrel Friday and was already surging before this weekend’s events.

NB gas prices are set weekly by the EUB based on the New York Harbour gasoline benchmark, converted to CAD. Here’s what the math looks like if crude keeps climbing.

The Scenarios

$150/barrel - pump price roughly $2.70 - $3.15/L. Your 50L fill: ~$135 - $157.

$200/barrel - pump price roughly $3.60 - $4.20/L. Your 50L fill: ~$180 - $210.

$250/barrel - pump price roughly $4.50 - $5.25/L. Your 50L fill: ~$225 - $263.

Currently sitting around $1.80/L with crude near $95.

Why the Ranges?

The range in each scenario accounts for two opposing forces.

The crack spread (gap between crude and refined gasoline) tends to widen during supply shocks, pushing prices higher than the straight-line math suggests. When refineries are being hit or going offline, refined product becomes scarcer than crude itself - RBOB overshoots crude on a percentage basis.

But the CAD also tends to strengthen when oil spikes since Canada is a net exporter, which partially offsets the increase at the pump.

These two forces pull in opposite directions. The crack spread widening usually wins in a crisis.

The Lag

One more thing worth knowing: NB prices lag by up to a week since the EUB resets on Thursdays. So even if crude spikes Monday, you won’t see the full pump adjustment until the following Thursday at the earliest.

The Direct Formula

If you want to track this yourself, NB’s formula is based on RBOB gasoline (not crude directly). The sensitivity is roughly 38 cents/L per $1/gallon move in RBOB, adjusted for the USD/CAD exchange rate.

Current RBOB: ~$3.28/gallon. A move to $4.326 (a key level) would put NB pump prices around $2.35-$2.40/L.

Bottom Line

Nobody knows where this goes. $150 is a real possibility if escalation continues. $200+ requires sustained production offline, not just a weekend of strikes. Either way, worth being aware of what the math says.

Disclaimer: This is not financial, investment, or trading advice. These are rough estimates based on publicly available pricing formulas and current exchange rates. Actual pump prices depend on many factors including refining capacity, government policy, seasonal blend requirements, and exchange rate movements. I am not an economist, energy analyst, or financial advisor. Do your own research.